Growth outlook: Winter is coming. Should I get my coat?

About this time of year everyone gets their crystal balls out and we all know most of it is made up and hoping rather than knowing. But what feels different this year is that universally every agency person has the same level of optimism around new business. And that level is pretty bloody low. Sitting in on the last AAR Town Hall of the year, it was quite sobering that everyone from the behemoth network to the small agency had similar experiences and feelings about the task ahead. 

The themes are familiar, consolidation of rosters, less VC money so less start up pitches (the driver of the new bus scene for a few years now), brands wanting to work smarter, not larger (e.g. less money to spend). Number of pitches likely to continue go down, combined with levels of overall ad spend declining (still technically in growth but at least 1/3 lopped off the levels expected earlier in the year) and don’t get me started on the Government own goal advice telling business to cut back on marketing spend.

In a word, 2023 will be ‘meh!’

That’s a pretty grim outlook for an agency owner as we turn seven and look to continue to build and grow. 

But then a chink of light in the gloom. Against this and the doom and gloom economic backdrop, one of the key outtakes from the Town Hall was that CMOs are apparently crying out for ammo to help them build their case against the noise of cost reduction and help to justify ROI, growth targets and cost management.

Well, hello there. You need ammo? We got it.

At a recent webinar event we ran, our strategy director Jo Vaughan provided some personal experience in her years as a Brand Director at P&G about how they handled downturns. Jo is probably better placed than most to talk from experience of having tried every which way to keep brands growing again economic uncertainty. So she knows her onions. If you need ammo, you should talk to Jo. 

The full talk can be found on the link below but you’ll find 13 and half minutes from c. 6m30 well worth your while.

https://vimeo.com/760314378

If you need more, go google Mark Ritson or Binet & Field’s the Long and Short of it.  Oh and here’s a recent example where AirBNB switched from a focus on performance marketing into brand building and it’s working.

So Winter is coming. But I’ll be trying to stay warm with Jo’s thoughts. Or if it all goes wrong I’ll have to burn my marketing books to keep warm.

Image created by MidJourney because everyone seems to be at it so why not? Prompts: 2023, economics, gloom, depression, city